Since late-2021, Cruise and Waymo have been testing driverless taxi rides with early-access users in San Francisco. Both services have been expanding their reach to include broader swaths of the city, with Waymo now covering ~80% of SF and Cruise (reportedly) covering the entire city. It's evident how many self-driving vehicles are operating by navigating around San Francisco - on a recent ~25-minute drive, I counted 14 self-driving vehicles.

Thus far, these services have only been available to the lucky few who received early access and got off the waitlist (I started using Waymo early access in February 2023). When will these services be available to the general public?

This market resolves positively if, by 2023-09-30, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Other resolution criteria:

• Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods

• The crucial criterion is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car

• Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively

• Public access with a timing restriction (e.g., the public can only access vehicles after 10pm) is acceptable

• The public access must last for at least a week without being shut down to resolve positively

• Access must be available via the app stores of at least 2 mobile phone operating systems (e.g., Android and iOS)