Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by September 30th?
closes Oct 1

Since late-2021, Cruise and Waymo have been testing driverless taxi rides with early-access users in San Francisco. Both services have been expanding their reach to include broader swaths of the city, with Waymo now covering ~80% of SF and Cruise (reportedly) covering the entire city. It's evident how many self-driving vehicles are operating by navigating around San Francisco - on a recent ~25-minute drive, I counted 14 self-driving vehicles.

Thus far, these services have only been available to the lucky few who received early access and got off the waitlist (I started using Waymo early access in February 2023). When will these services be available to the general public?

This market resolves positively if, by 2023-09-30, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Other resolution criteria:

  • Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods

  • The crucial criterion is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car

  • Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively

  • Public access with a timing restriction (e.g., the public can only access vehicles after 10pm) is acceptable

  • The public access must last for at least a week without being shut down to resolve positively

  • Access must be available via the app stores of at least 2 mobile phone operating systems (e.g., Android and iOS)

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
TF avatar
TFsold Ṁ499 of NO

I'm hearing people from 2 years ago have been getting off the Waymo waitlist since Aug 21.

1 reply
ahalekelly avatar
Adrianpredicts NO

@TF I’ve been on the waitlist since Aug 2021, this comment made me go check and I got approved Aug 29th!

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

is there a way to tell yet if this crash indicates an above, similar, or below-human accident rate for its severity?

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@jacksonpolack Even if it's a below-human accident rate, it will still sow panic, and people will claim the opposite.

PC avatar
PhilCbought Ṁ250 of NO

Need Mana to diversify my portfolio, but Waymo did say "In the coming weeks, we’ll begin charging fares for rider-only trips and welcoming new riders into Waymo One in San Francisco."

Cruise was ramping up before the Aug 10th meeting (one sign that they knew it would pass).

cc6 avatar
cc6bought Ṁ75 of NO

Although they can allow everyone access, Waymo doesn't have enough cars and has to do a slow rollout, which may not complete before September 30. https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/waymos-next-chapter-in-san-francisco.html

Same might be the case with Cruise

6 replies
JoshuaB avatar

@cc6 It is not the case with Cruise though:

~~The Cruise service is open to paying members of the public from 10 p.m. to 5:30am in the Northwest part of San Francisco, Cruise confirmed.~~

Edit: @cc6 has pointed this was from April, sorry y’all

cc6 avatar
cc6predicts NO

@JoshuaB That's an old article from April. My dad still had to get off of a waitlist to have access, but it wasn't very hard

vlad avatar
Vlad Sitalopredicts NO

@cc6 hrm, I've been on the waitlist for 1.5y by this point =\

JoshuaB avatar

@cc6 Oh no

cc6 avatar
cc6predicts NO

@JoshuaB Just downloaded the app to test if I could make an account and it says I need an invite code

wylderai avatar
wylderaibought Ṁ292 of NO

@cc6 I'm in the Cruise beta and there are often not cars available.

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galepredicts NO

The market updated very quickly after the CPUC's ruling, which is great. But I'm retroactively surprised it was trading so low beforehand (mid-20s).

I was skeptical due to the loud voices complaining about transit slowing and SF's history with poor governmental judgement. Was this outcome foreseeable or was there just not enough info available to the public for traders to be more accurate?

2 replies
PC avatar
PhilCpredicts YES

@CarsonGale Probably more lack of traders. I had this above 50% for a while

PC avatar
PhilCpredicts YES

@PC The protests definitely decreased it

vlad avatar
Vlad Sitalopredicts NO

@JoshuaB it's still not available to public (only waitlist people) though 🙁

JoshuaB avatar


The Cruise service is open to paying members of the public from 10 p.m. to 5:30am in the Northwest part of San Francisco, Cruise confirmed.

vlad avatar
Vlad Sitalosold Ṁ2 of NO

@JoshuaB when I go to the app, I still get a request for invite code 🤔. I'm in the wrong part of the city, but I'd expect it to just show me that vs not allowing me to sign up..

PC avatar