Since late-2021, Cruise and Waymo have been testing driverless taxi rides with early-access users in San Francisco. Both services have been expanding their reach to include broader swaths of the city, with Waymo now covering ~80% of SF and Cruise (reportedly) covering the entire city. It's evident how many self-driving vehicles are operating by navigating around San Francisco - on a recent ~25-minute drive, I counted 14 self-driving vehicles.
Thus far, these services have only been available to the lucky few who received early access and got off the waitlist (I started using Waymo early access in February 2023). When will these services be available to the general public?
This market resolves positively if, by 2023-09-30, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Other resolution criteria:
Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods
The crucial criterion is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car
Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively
Public access with a timing restriction (e.g., the public can only access vehicles after 10pm) is acceptable
The public access must last for at least a week without being shut down to resolve positively
Access must be available via the app stores of at least 2 mobile phone operating systems (e.g., Android and iOS)
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@TF I’ve been on the waitlist since Aug 2021, this comment made me go check and I got approved Aug 29th!
https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/18/cruise-told-by-regulators-to-immediately-reduce-robotaxi-fleet-50-following-crash/
@jacksonpolack Even if it's a below-human accident rate, it will still sow panic, and people will claim the opposite.
Waymo to start charging on Monday https://electrek.co/2023/08/16/waymo-starts-taking-fares-for-sf-robotaxis-after-state-approval/
Although they can allow everyone access, Waymo doesn't have enough cars and has to do a slow rollout, which may not complete before September 30. https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/waymos-next-chapter-in-san-francisco.html
Same might be the case with Cruise
@cc6 It is not the case with Cruise though:
~~The Cruise service is open to paying members of the public from 10 p.m. to 5:30am in the Northwest part of San Francisco, Cruise confirmed.~~
Edit: @cc6 has pointed this was from April, sorry y’all
@JoshuaB That's an old article from April. My dad still had to get off of a waitlist to have access, but it wasn't very hard
@JoshuaB Just downloaded the app to test if I could make an account and it says I need an invite code
The market updated very quickly after the CPUC's ruling, which is great. But I'm retroactively surprised it was trading so low beforehand (mid-20s).
I was skeptical due to the loud voices complaining about transit slowing and SF's history with poor governmental judgement. Was this outcome foreseeable or was there just not enough info available to the public for traders to be more accurate?
Edit: @cc6 has pointed out that this was from April! Sorry y’all!
Literally a psychic calling the “after 10 pm” clause
The Cruise service is open to paying members of the public from 10 p.m. to 5:30am in the Northwest part of San Francisco, Cruise confirmed.
@JoshuaB when I go to the app, I still get a request for invite code 🤔. I'm in the wrong part of the city, but I'd expect it to just show me that vs not allowing me to sign up..