Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolves positively if, by 2023-12-31, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods. The important criteria is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car.

Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively.

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predicted NO

resolves no 😭

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Certainly Cruise is out of the question now.

Waymo has been adding many people from its waitlist, which is or has been at over 100k people. From Alphabet's earning's call last week (Oct 24):
"In Other Bets, Waymo is onboarding more riders to its commercial ride-hailing service as it gradually adds over 100,000 people from its San Francisco waitlist. Austin will follow as its next ride-hail city."

sold Ṁ30 of NO

To my understanding you don’t need an invite for Waymo anymore. So „anyone can order it“ is satisfied.

There is still a waitlist though. Does this question come down to how long it takes to get through the waitlist?

predicted NO

@marketwise Yes, someone can’t order it if theyre stuck on a waitlist

predicted YES

There needs to not be a waitlist

sold Ṁ432 of NO


"Waymo is opening up its robotaxi service in San Francisco to tens of thousands of people across 47 square miles of the city — a significant expansion of the company’s driverless ridehail operations."
"The Alphabet-owned company is in the process of onboarding riders from its waitlist, which it expects to complete in short order."

To be transparent I still think GA by EOY is <20% likely but I think this market is lower than sentiment

predicted NO


Implication that Waymo will NOT be GA by Nov 15

In SF, Waymo and Cruise together have fewer than a few hundred cars (200-300) on the road. Contrast that with probably thousands of Uber/Lyft that are available at any given moment. IMHO there's no feasible way for them to expand availability to everyone and still maintain competitive ETA and pricing unless they also expand the fleet by more than 5-10x. Doable by end of 2023? I highly doubt it.

(Now if Waymo & Cruise actually expand, they will be flooding the rideshare market with supply, so maintaining competitive ETA and pricing may not require expanding the fleet by 5-10x.)

predicted NO

@TysonNi And Cruise is still limited to 50 cars during the day and 150 at night AFAIK

@PlainBG The number of cars and profitability is not directly relevant for the resolution here, is it?

(Still useful as indicators though)

bought Ṁ150 of YES
bought Ṁ5 of NO

I'm not an English major but could 'anyone' be replaced with 'everyone' in the question?

predicted YES

@stony yup makes sense

Great question. Hoping it's true.

What are people updating on?

predicted NO

@ArnavBansal The two companies have been pretty unpopular in the news lately because one of the cars got into a car accident and the fire department has complained that the cars don’t know how to get out of the way during emergencies. Also, I don’t think they are ready to release it to everyone because they don’t have that many cars yet

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