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15% chance. 2023-02-15 Update: Resolves positively if, by the end of 2027, Twitter has incorporated prediction market services into their platform. Can resolve positively early if Twitter incorporates prediction market functionality ahead of the closing date. Events that make a positive resolution likely: Functionality is added such that, in addition to Tweets or alongside a Tweet, users or organizations can create public or private markets (using play or real currency) on questions about future events Twitter refers to a new capability as a "prediction market" A service of Twitter's looks and feels like Manifold / PredictIt / PolyMarket's UX Other resolution details: If Twitter acquires a prediction market service AND incorporates it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve positively If Twitter acquires a prediction market service and does NOT incorporate it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve negatively 2023-08-14 Edit: For purposes of this market, 'Twitter' can be viewed as synonymous with 'X' given the re-branding. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-be-acquired-by-twitte)