Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Plus
12
Ṁ3612028
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the federal government - the government entity itself must own it.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
57% chance
Will Manifold allow you to combine markets by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
67% chance
Will there be a Manifold Markets competitor before 2025?
69% chance
Will a U.S. State Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
11% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
42% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
70% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
63% chance
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance