Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
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Plus
12
Ṁ361
2028
14%
chance

The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the federal government - the government entity itself must own it.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

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I would imagine this would get spicy with the First Amendment in play. Remember when the Air Force made a Twitch and users kept asking things like "what is your favorite war crime?" in chat and they were not allowed to ban them?

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