Background

In 2023, the Presidio Trust received a $200 million federal grant intended for infrastructure improvements, environmental conservation, and climate resilience projects within San Francisco’s Presidio National Park. However, following President Donald Trump’s February 19, 2025, executive order aiming to eliminate the Presidio Trust, this funding has come under scrutiny.

House Republicans have proposed rescinding or reallocating a significant portion of this funding as part of broader budget cuts. The fate of the grant will depend on congressional budget negotiations, legal challenges, and potential shifts in political priorities.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if, by June 30, 2025, at least $100 million (50%) of the original $200 million grant is officially rescinded, reallocated, or otherwise made unavailable for use by the Presidio Trust. This includes:

• A formal rescission or reallocation passed by Congress and signed into law.

• A federal budget decision that removes or redirects these funds to another purpose.

• A government agency (e.g., the Office of Management and Budget) issuing a final ruling canceling or freezing the funds.

This market will resolve NO if, by June 30, 2025:

• Less than $100 million is rescinded or reallocated.

• The Presidio Trust retains control over at least 50% of the grant, even if its spending is delayed or restricted.

• There are pending legal disputes over the grant’s status, but no formal rescission of the funds has occurred.

If the status of the grant remains uncertain by the resolution date, resolution may be delayed until there is clear confirmation of its fate.

Considerations

• Congressional Action: Rescinding federal funding typically requires legislative approval, making it dependent on budget negotiations.

• Legal Challenges: Lawsuits from local officials or preservation groups could delay or prevent reallocation.

• Spending Timeline: If funds have already been allocated to specific projects, rescinding them may be more difficult.

• Political Climate: A shift in congressional priorities or public pressure could impact the likelihood of rescission.

Traders should consider these factors when forecasting the likelihood of a partial or full rescission of the Presidio Trust’s federal grant.