On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

“Twitter struggles to make interest payments on their recently acquired debt of ~$14 billion and is forced to sell more equity to cover the cost.  Elon makes a play to acquire that debt at the actual value of Twitter (estimated to be closer to $10Bn than $44Bn) and is able to recoup some of the premium he paid for Twitter via a quasi-reorganization. He converts that debt to equity, further increasing his exposure to the investment. He changes the revenue model to be a mix of blue check $8 subscription for premium content or some special form of access and begins to add direct communication features for users which starts to re-attract lost ad customers. He incorporates a payment system that does not require a bank account to transfer funds, only a Twitter handle and cell phone number. Twitter cracks the code on ‘banking the unbankable’ and returns to its previous glory.” —Matt Barbieri, partner, Wiss & Company

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

• [TBU]