By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?
27
82
550
2031
40%
chance

My current perception is that climate change is very concerning. I'm not knowledgeable about the specifics, but it seems like it will cause many excess deaths in the next 30 years, force major relocation and suffering, and potentially leave the planet in a worse position to facilitate human flourishing over the long term.

I'm also concerned about the tail risks of climate change, which seem to have more civilization-threatening risks in the worst-case scenarios (though similarly, I don't know many of the details).

At the end of 2030, I will consider the threat from climate change again and decide whether the perceived threat level is better or worse relative to my understanding in 2023.

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predicts NO

@JamesGrugett he's not a climate scientist. I learned years ago: you can listen to the luke warmers that are climate scientists if you want to be more open minded, but it's a waste of time for people from other disciplines getting their toes wet

@JamesGrugett I'm biased, as a climate scientist in training, but I feel like the best word for that article is "absurd."

predicts NO
sold Ṁ4 of NO

What probability would you assign to a surprising civilization-threatening risk that is mostly caused by surprisingly extreme climate change and mostly not caused by surprisingly extreme political/social effects?

@NoaNabeshima probably ~0.5%, super uncertain

predicts NO

How many people do you expect it to cause to relocate?

@NoaNabeshima no idea really - maybe 5-10 million or so between now and 2050

bought Ṁ10 of NO

How many deaths do you expect it to cause?

@NoaNabeshima i read 250k per year between 2030 and 2050, but guess it would be slightly more than that in the base case