My current perception is that climate change is very concerning. I'm not knowledgeable about the specifics, but it seems like it will cause many excess deaths in the next 30 years, force major relocation and suffering, and potentially leave the planet in a worse position to facilitate human flourishing over the long term.
I'm also concerned about the tail risks of climate change, which seem to have more civilization-threatening risks in the worst-case scenarios (though similarly, I don't know many of the details).
At the end of 2030, I will consider the threat from climate change again and decide whether the perceived threat level is better or worse relative to my understanding in 2023.
1,000People are also trading
David Friedman's opinion: https://open.substack.com/pub/daviddfriedman/p/a-climate-science-textbook
@JamesGrugett he's not a climate scientist. I learned years ago: you can listen to the luke warmers that are climate scientists if you want to be more open minded, but it's a waste of time for people from other disciplines getting their toes wet
@JamesGrugett I'm biased, as a climate scientist in training, but I feel like the best word for that article is "absurd."
@NoaNabeshima i read 250k per year between 2030 and 2050, but guess it would be slightly more than that in the base case