By the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?

Question

I will only resolve YES answers created by order of magnitude (edit: OR <10K, which includes negative numbers)

EG: 10K-100K, 100K-1M, 1M-10M, 10M-100M, etc.

Please do not add answers that deviate from this format.

I will not count effects that route through social effects of climate change. EG I will not count "climate-change related mass immigration increases social instability which is partially responsible for a war in which people die".

I will count effects like "climate change caused high temperatures in a region which caused people to be more likely to die from sickness."

If climate change seems to be reducing the number of deaths somehow in a way that doesn't route through social effects, I will factor that into my estimate.

I will only trade small amounts of mana in this market to create answers.

I would greatly appreciate operationalization improvement feedback/questions about my operationalization.

Estimate starts at Jan 1, 2000.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other, followed by 1M-10M and <10K (includes negative numbers) are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Jun 25, 2023).