Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the option that best describes any action taken by President Trump against Russia following their conversation on April 1, 2025. The market will resolve to "No, relations will remain unchanged" if no significant actions are taken within 30 days of the conversation. If multiple actions are taken, the market will resolve to the most significant action as determined by the market creator.

Background

President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to speak on Tuesday, April 1, 2025. This conversation comes amid ongoing tensions related to the Ukraine conflict. Trump has recently indicated he is "strongly considering" imposing sanctions and tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire and peace deal are not reached in Ukraine. The U.S. had temporarily suspended military aid to Ukraine, but negotiations appear to be resuming.

Considerations

The outcome of this market depends on how the conversation between the two leaders unfolds and subsequent policy decisions. Trump's administration has been working to reset relations with Russia, which could influence the likelihood of punitive measures. The most likely actions based on recent statements would be related to sanctions or changes to Ukraine military aid policy, but the situation remains fluid.