Will I regret going back to school by the end of my first quarter?

Ṁ100Ṁ44

Aug 21

25%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if, during a sincere reflection conducted between weeks 7 and 9 of my first quarter back at school, I conclude that I regret the decision to return to school.

Resolves NO otherwise.

I will publish some version of said reflection when I resolve the market. If I do not engage in this reflection, or decide I cannot come to a general conclusion, the market resolves N/A.

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As we discussed irl, it is underspecified what happens if you decide you don't go back to school. My recommendation was resolving PROB to your subjective probability (I sometimes say rounded to the nearest 25%) that you would have regretted it. (A popular alternative is N/A, but this has the issue that not going back to school is correlated with thinking you would regret it, which is correlated with the market being high, which provides a disincentive for people to bet the market high if they think going back to school is bad move.)