Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.
If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.
1,000People are also trading
“Hamas plans to release all 20 living hostages this weekend, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza.”
Hope this is true!
@JaundicedBaboon another related market (if there is a ceasefire, releasing the hostages in stages will maintain it)
https://manifold.markets/VonGadke/gaza-ceasefire-in-2025?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ
@PoliticalEconomyPK
do you think? Give us your analysis of the results of the assassination. i think it can go both ways.
Khalil al-Hayya was part of the reason that the negotiation was stuck, he didnt have skin in the game, and he didnt care that the war will be long.
@CarmelHadar I actually doubt anyone is a hindrance to negotiations, solely because we have heard this before. Exactly each time after each of the sinwar brothers got killed. Even then israeli journalists were saying this would be good for negotiations.
@PoliticalEconomyPK
look, i dont think that full return of the hostages is possible anyway (you can see my bets), its against the motives of the negotiators, but i do think the assassination increases the probability of a deal (probably partial).
but they are religious fanatics, so who knows.
@CarmelHadar I think the biggest obstacle right now is Netanyahu’s coalition. From Israel’s side, it feels like a deliberate choice to hold on to power instead of putting people first. That choice has already cost lives on both sides and dragged out the war for months. Without the pressure from his far-right partners, a deal might have been possible much earlier. We’ve already seen several near-missed agreements in 2025 that could have changed the course of things.
I am far from far right, and I do not think that the current agreement is something that Israel can accept.
The current terms that Hamas has agreed upon, are ones that keeps him on power, and allow him to resupply his weapon stocks later. Israel cannot accept that if they want to live peacefully. It's irrational to only think short term, and accept such a deal.
The reason I've open this market is to show how people delude themselves that a full deal is possible. People prefer wishful thinking over understanding and analyzing the motives and interest. Hamas cannot accept a full deal, because that leaves him with zero leverage. It's irrational of them to give up all thier cards (assuming that they don't care much of the suffering of their people)
@CarmelHadar to be clear, can you clarify what you mean by "current terms" because there are competing claims online where people are saying one party is agreeing and the other is not
Of course there will. The savages will never agree to release them all, and international pressure will step in to protect the baby-torturers and stop Israel rescuing the hostages from them.
@ShakedKoplewitz Is it wrong to say they already agreed to release them all, but Israel breaking the ceasefire has jeopardized that agreement?
@GazDownright
they have no motive to fullfill such an agreement. they will always want to have some kind of leverage, if they give the last one they are dead.
Anyway, if you read the agreement, you would knew that both sides knew that only the first part will happen. and the promise for later negotiation is just for the media, and for people like you, who are only half-listening to the story. the other part of "releasing all the hostages and end the war" was so vague that any intelligent and experienced person would know that can never happen. so its quite funny to say that Israel broke the agreement (also, Hamas broke it many time during the deal, if you want i can show you, its just that your media sources doesnt register that).
anyway, the whole point of this market is to show that hamas will never release the last hostage, they will always keep some. and so far it proves my point precisely
@Shai yeah i figured, what i actually meant was:
I don't see a reason to update my bet following Trump statements.
To be clear, this question specifically relates to the people who were made hostage on october 7th 2023. Not anyone already a hostage before October 7th. Right?
Also, if on 31st December 2023 there is/are hostage(s) in gaza but its clear to everyone that there arent any alive hostages, how then will you resolve?
Yes, I think I made that clear, this does not include hostages before Oct 7.
I will assume you meant 31 Dec 25.
In that case it will be reslolve as NO. But it should be quite clear, (something like state of Israel post official declaration that all the remaining are dead, or Hamas do something like that, if it's still under dispute, and Hamas will claim they still have live hostages, and there no contradictory evidence, it will resolve as YES)
@PoliticalEconomyPK Wait. Is this only about live hostages? If so, you should make that clear in the title and the description.