Will the pregnant hostage who gave birth while captive & her baby survive and be returned alive to Israel by Dec 1st?
Basic
64
4.9k
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
N/A

A woman who Hamas is holding hostage in Gaza gave birth to a baby while in captivity, according to the Israeli Prime Minister's Office.

If by Dec 1st both the mother and the baby exit Gaza alive (even if wounded), then this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

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The creator never responded to the key question proposed by @AviSchwartz on the very first day. I'm going to N/A this because of the absence of the creator and lack of clarification for several weeks.

I understand some participants may wish they got a payout from their good bets, but since we never got any clarification, our moderator guidelines 'recommend' an N/A:

> If a market resolution has some ambiguity and there is dispute over the correct resolution, the creator will have the final say. However, we usually recommend an N/A resolution under these circumstances, especially if the ambiguity is at the fault of the creator.

@CarineBelleF Can this resolve? If not, should it be extended?

I understand she was not actually pregnant. So although she was released I understand there was no baby. So— resolved No?

@CarineBelleF How would you resolve this market if the reports about a hostage giving birth are unfounded and verified as being false?

@AviSchwartz If she doesn’t exist, she can’t be repatriated.

On the other hand, if a different hostage gave birth and both she and her child were repatriated to Israel, even if the one mentioned exists and isn’t, the question would resolve yes.

predicted NO

@DanPowell She exists. Her child may not.

@DanPowell If the set is empty, every assertion is always true. But I would say that it will simply be solved with N/A.

predicted NO

@Emanuele98 Nothing is true of at least one member of the empty set.

predicted YES

@DanPowell It doesn't say at least one.

predicted NO

@Emanuele98 It also doesn’t say all.

predicted YES

@DanPowell yes, But as I said, it simply will be N/A, these are "tricks" of set theory.

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