If Trump is elected president again, will the US withdraw from the Paris Agreement a second time?
Mini
7
แน€193
2029
86%
chance

Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected president in the next US Presidential election.

Paris Agreement: 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change Mitigation

Withdrawal: Just like the first time around, resolves Yes twelve (12) months after the administration gives formal notice of intent to withdraw (withdrawal period). Also resolves Yes if the formal process is not used, but the agreement obligations, like emission reporting to the UN, are unilaterally ceased. For the latter case, clear stated intent of the administration to not abide is necessary. If barred by judiciary or other action during the 12 month withdrawal period, such that all or most obligations are still fulfilled, resolves No. If it is extra unclear, or the US federal government is somehow changed such that continuity of the state known today as US of A is unclear, I reserve the right to resolves N/A.

Resolves Yes if the withdrawal occurs after the end of the 2nd Trump presidency (even if early termination), if the withdrawal was clearly due to actions taken during it. Resolves No if the agreement is terminated by actions outside the US executive branch (without assent/approval from the executive branch, and no plan to reinstore membership), or by the UN, or by a majority of other countries, or if the agreement is made obsolete by more severe climate change mitigation treaty or agreement, or any other external entity.

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