Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2030 (11:59 PM UTC), the United States formally terminates its membership in the United Nations or formally transmits an official instrument/notice of complete withdrawal from the United Nations to the UN Secretary-General during Donald Trump's presidency.

This market will resolve to NO if no such total withdrawal occurs before January 1, 2030, or if Donald Trump leaves office without the US having completed or formally initiated a total withdrawal from the UN.

Key Clarifications & Edge Cases:

• Individual agencies do not qualify: Withdrawing from or defunding specific affiliated agencies, funds, or treaties (such as the WHO, UNESCO, UNHCR, UNHRC, or UNFCCC) does not qualify. The action must apply to the United Nations organization itself (including the General Assembly and Security Council).

• Funding cuts: Withholding financial dues or facing automatic voting suspension under Article 19 of the UN Charter does not constitute withdrawal.

• Verification: Resolution will be determined using official releases from the United Nations, the U.S. Department of State, or the White House, backed by consensus reporting from major news wire services (such as Reuters or the Associated Press).

Background

The United States is a founding member of the United Nations and one of five permanent, veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council. Unlike many individual treaties, the UN Charter contains no formal exit clause, making a full withdrawal legally and procedurally unprecedented for a permanent member.

While Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the UN and withdrawn the US from several specific subsidiary bodies and agreements (such as the UN Human Rights Council, UNESCO, and the WHO), the administration has retained the primary US seat and veto power on the Security Council. Legislation to fully exit the UN and repeal the United Nations Participation Act of 1945 (such as the American Sovereignty Restoration Act) has been periodically introduced by conservative lawmakers in Congress but has never been enacted.