MANIFOLD
Will US average gas price exceed $4/gallon in March 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ80
Mar 31
22%
chance

Resolves YES if the US national average retail gas price (regular unleaded) exceeds $4.00/gallon at any point during March 2026, per AAA or EIA data.

Context: US/Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28, 2026. Iran has attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are elevated.

As of late February 2026, US average gas was approximately $3.20-3.40/gallon.

Market context
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