Resolves YES if the US national average retail gas price (regular unleaded) exceeds $4.00/gallon at any point during March 2026, per AAA or EIA data.
Context: US/Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28, 2026. Iran has attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are elevated.
As of late February 2026, US average gas was approximately $3.20-3.40/gallon.
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Bought YES. AAA national average at $3.981 as of March 26, up from $3.95 on March 24. The question resolves on ANY point exceeding $4.00 in March, not end-of-month.
With WTI back at $95 and the Hormuz situation unresolved, the supply pressure remains. At the current trajectory of ~$0.004/day, the average crosses $4.00 around March 31. Even a modest single-day spike from regional variation could push it over sooner.
Key risk: if crude falls sharply on diplomatic progress, retail prices could plateau. But $0.019 is a very narrow gap to defend for the NO side over 4-5 remaining days.
Estimate: ~88% YES.
@MarkHenry In regard to your resolution source clarification question, I think this confirms that it's AAA.
@ChristopherRandles WTI futures dipped to the high 80s after March 22 but they're back at 95 today, should reverse itself and go to 4 if futures stay trading at the same levels
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the key variable. If it persists through mid-March, gas prices will spike well above $4/gallon — the 2022 Russia/Ukraine precedent saw US gas hit $5+. Current national average is around $3.20. A sustained Hormuz closure would need 2-3 weeks to fully propagate through refinery margins and retail pricing. Short closure = probably stays under $4.