Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline, as reported by the American Automobile Association (AAA) at gasprices.aaa.com, reaches or exceeds $4.50 at any point before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026. If the price never reaches or exceeds $4.50 before the polls close on November 3, 2026, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

As of early April 2026, the U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is approximately $4.09, reflecting a significant upward trend driven by surging crude oil costs amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. Gas prices are subject to volatility based on global supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and domestic demand. While AAA is the primary source for this resolution, historical data and trends can also be cross-referenced with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for context.

This description was generated by AI.