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MANIFOLD
Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ15
Jun 25
45%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports a headline U.S. personal saving rate of 3.0% or higher. Use the headline personal saving rate in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial reported personal saving rate is 2.9% or lower. Do not use personal income, disposable personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, real-income measures, saving in dollars, subcomponents, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline personal saving rate unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_billions": 586.6, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Headline personal saving rate, percent", "related_non_duplicates": ["Personal income, disposable personal income, and PCE spending markets are not duplicates.", "Headline/core PCE inflation, real-income, outlays, wage-and-salary, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's April 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release lists the next release, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026, for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "3.0% or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026

Market context
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