This market resolves YES if the initial BEA advance estimate for Q2 2026 U.S. GDP reports that the gross domestic purchases price index rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.0% or higher. Use the BEA Gross Domestic Product advance-estimate release for Q2 2026, specifically the gross domestic purchases price index / prices for gross domestic purchases percent change from the preceding period. Resolve NO if the initial advance estimate is +2.9% or lower. Do not use real GDP growth, nominal GDP, CPI, PPI, PCE price index, import/export prices, or later second/third GDP estimates unless BEA issues a correction to the initial Q2 2026 advance estimate before this market resolves. If the Q2 2026 GDP advance-estimate release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the Q2 2026 advance-estimate gross domestic purchases price index unless no such release exists by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"current_official_context": "BEA's current Q1 2026 second-estimate release says the gross domestic purchases price index increased 3.5% annualized; the Q1 advance estimate was 3.6%.", "metric": "Gross domestic purchases price index, percent change from the preceding period, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["`dEdpSAn6ER` asks about Q2 2026 real GDP growth >=2.0%, not the GDP-release price index.", "`dpAuZpEQtN` asks about Q2 2026 real GDP growth >=3.0%, not the GDP-release price index.", "June CPI/PPI/PCE/import-export price markets are separate monthly releases and resolver surfaces."], "release_schedule": "BEA schedule lists Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2026 for July 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Gross Domestic Product advance estimate for Q2 2026", "threshold": "At least +3.0%"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA GDP page: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product - Current BEA GDP full release PDF for metric wording: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/gdp1q26-2nd.pdf
Will the Q2 2026 U.S. gross domestic purchases price index rise at least 3.0% in the advance GDP estimate?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ64Jul 30
72%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Will the advance estimate of Q2 2026 US real GDP growth be at least 3.0%?
35% chance
Will May 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
45% chance
Will May 2026 U.S. real personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
44% chance
Will May 2026 U.S. personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
50% chance
Will June 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
52% chance
Will the advance estimate of Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth be at least 2.0%?
48% chance
Will June 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
47% chance
Will June 2026 U.S. personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
50% chance