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MANIFOLD
Will the Q2 2026 U.S. gross domestic purchases price index rise at least 3.0% in the advance GDP estimate?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ64
Jul 30
72%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA advance estimate for Q2 2026 U.S. GDP reports that the gross domestic purchases price index rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.0% or higher. Use the BEA Gross Domestic Product advance-estimate release for Q2 2026, specifically the gross domestic purchases price index / prices for gross domestic purchases percent change from the preceding period. Resolve NO if the initial advance estimate is +2.9% or lower. Do not use real GDP growth, nominal GDP, CPI, PPI, PCE price index, import/export prices, or later second/third GDP estimates unless BEA issues a correction to the initial Q2 2026 advance estimate before this market resolves. If the Q2 2026 GDP advance-estimate release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the Q2 2026 advance-estimate gross domestic purchases price index unless no such release exists by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"current_official_context": "BEA's current Q1 2026 second-estimate release says the gross domestic purchases price index increased 3.5% annualized; the Q1 advance estimate was 3.6%.", "metric": "Gross domestic purchases price index, percent change from the preceding period, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["`dEdpSAn6ER` asks about Q2 2026 real GDP growth >=2.0%, not the GDP-release price index.", "`dpAuZpEQtN` asks about Q2 2026 real GDP growth >=3.0%, not the GDP-release price index.", "June CPI/PPI/PCE/import-export price markets are separate monthly releases and resolver surfaces."], "release_schedule": "BEA schedule lists Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2026 for July 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Gross Domestic Product advance estimate for Q2 2026", "threshold": "At least +3.0%"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA GDP page: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product - Current BEA GDP full release PDF for metric wording: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/gdp1q26-2nd.pdf

Market context
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