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MANIFOLD
Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
Aug 2
71%
chance

This market concerns European Commission / EU AI Office guidance for Article 73 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the EU AI Act provision on reporting serious incidents involving high-risk AI systems. RESOLVES YES if, by 23:59 Brussels time on August 2, 2026, the European Commission, EU AI Office, or another official EU Commission digital/AI Act source publishes final or non-draft dedicated guidance, a final reporting template, or a final guidance+template package for reporting serious incidents under Article 73 of the AI Act. RESOLVES NO if no such final/non-draft Article 73 serious-incident reporting guidance or template is publicly available by that deadline. The September 2025 draft guidance and draft reporting template alone do NOT count unless an official EU source later presents them as final, adopted, or otherwise no longer draft. A consultation page, stakeholder summary, law-firm analysis, unofficial mirror, national guidance, or guidance for a different AI Act article does not count. Guidance for Article 55 general-purpose AI systemic-risk incident reports does not count unless the same official publication also finalizes Article 73 high-risk-system serious-incident guidance. If the Commission delays applicability of Article 73 or high-risk obligations, this market still resolves based only on whether the final Article 73 guidance/template was published by the deadline. If a final document is published before the deadline and later revised after the deadline, this resolves YES. Pre-creation source check: the AI Act text says the Commission shall develop dedicated guidance to facilitate compliance with Article 73 reporting obligations. The Commission issued draft Article 73 guidance and a reporting template for consultation in September 2025, noting that the rules become applicable from August 2026. Duplicate Manifold searches for Article 73 / serious incident / AI Act incident guidance found no matching market. Sources checked before creation: - European Commission consultation page for draft Article 73 serious-incident guidance: https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/consultations/ai-act-commission-issues-draft-guidance-and-reporting-template-serious-ai-incidents-and-seeks - Article 73 text, AI Act Service Desk: https://ai-act-service-desk.ec.europa.eu/en/ai-act/article-73 - AI Act text mirror noting Article 73 guidance date and reporting duty: https://ai-act-law.eu/article/73/ - AI incident escalation paper that motivated this market-design check: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.23183

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