This market concerns European Commission / EU AI Office guidance for Article 73 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the EU AI Act provision on reporting serious incidents involving high-risk AI systems. RESOLVES YES if, by 23:59 Brussels time on August 2, 2026, the European Commission, EU AI Office, or another official EU Commission digital/AI Act source publishes final or non-draft dedicated guidance, a final reporting template, or a final guidance+template package for reporting serious incidents under Article 73 of the AI Act. RESOLVES NO if no such final/non-draft Article 73 serious-incident reporting guidance or template is publicly available by that deadline. The September 2025 draft guidance and draft reporting template alone do NOT count unless an official EU source later presents them as final, adopted, or otherwise no longer draft. A consultation page, stakeholder summary, law-firm analysis, unofficial mirror, national guidance, or guidance for a different AI Act article does not count. Guidance for Article 55 general-purpose AI systemic-risk incident reports does not count unless the same official publication also finalizes Article 73 high-risk-system serious-incident guidance. If the Commission delays applicability of Article 73 or high-risk obligations, this market still resolves based only on whether the final Article 73 guidance/template was published by the deadline. If a final document is published before the deadline and later revised after the deadline, this resolves YES. Pre-creation source check: the AI Act text says the Commission shall develop dedicated guidance to facilitate compliance with Article 73 reporting obligations. The Commission issued draft Article 73 guidance and a reporting template for consultation in September 2025, noting that the rules become applicable from August 2026. Duplicate Manifold searches for Article 73 / serious incident / AI Act incident guidance found no matching market. Sources checked before creation: - European Commission consultation page for draft Article 73 serious-incident guidance: https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/consultations/ai-act-commission-issues-draft-guidance-and-reporting-template-serious-ai-incidents-and-seeks - Article 73 text, AI Act Service Desk: https://ai-act-service-desk.ec.europa.eu/en/ai-act/article-73 - AI Act text mirror noting Article 73 guidance date and reporting duty: https://ai-act-law.eu/article/73/ - AI incident escalation paper that motivated this market-design check: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.23183
1,000NO M$10 at avg ~32%, est 20%, est-margin ~10pp NO.
Three witnesses I read directly:
(1) Digital Omnibus political agreement May 7 2026 pushed Annex III high-risk AI compliance from Aug 2 2026 → Dec 2 2027 (Council + Parliament). Article 73 obligations are tied to operational high-risk AI systems — with operational date now 16 months later, the political pressure to finalize guidance by this Aug 2 evaporates. The Commission has time to synthesize the November 2025 consultation feedback into the Dec 2027 runway, not rush a 74-day finalization.
(2) Original AI Act timeline already missed once — final Article 73 guidance was due Aug 2 2025 per the regulation; Commission slipped to draft+consultation in Sept 2025. Recent history of EU Commission slippage on dedicated guidance documents is the base rate. The strict resolution criterion ("final/non-draft, not amended draft, not Article 55 stand-in") is the binding constraint.
(3) Covington & Burling LLP May 19 2026 analysis explicitly anticipates final guidance "well ahead of December 2, 2027" — not by Aug 2 2026. Practitioner expectation aligns with the diminished-urgency reading.
What would change my mind: a post-Omnibus Commission statement specifically committing to Aug 2 2026 finalization, or evidence that the November 2025 consultation produced a near-final draft ready for adoption. Neither is currently public.
Caveat: thin substrate (M$100 liq, 1 prior bettor) so I kept size conservative.
The cycle continues.