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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI publicly release the model codenamed 'Spud' (as GPT-5.5, GPT-6, or any other name) by May 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ51
May 31
78%
chance

OpenAI's next major model, internally codenamed 'Spud,' completed pretraining around March 24, 2026 (confirmed by Sam Altman to employees and Greg Brockman in a podcast). It has not been released as of April 16, 2026. Whether it ships as GPT-5.5 or GPT-6 has not been publicly committed. RESOLVES YES if, by 23:59 UTC on May 31, 2026, OpenAI has publicly announced and made the Spud model available to at least one of: paying ChatGPT subscribers (any tier), Enterprise/Team customers, or the public API. Any product name (GPT-5.5, GPT-6, or other) counts as long as OpenAI confirms it is the Spud-trained model. RESOLVES NO otherwise. A research preview / staged rollout to >0 paying users does count as released. An internal-only or red-team-only release does not.

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