This market resolves YES if the initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for May 2026 reports that U.S. manufacturing output rose at least 0.3% month-over-month from April to May 2026. Use the manufacturing major industry group monthly percent-change figure from the initial May 2026 G.17 release, scheduled for June 15, 2026. A reported +0.3% or higher resolves YES. +0.2% or lower resolves NO. If the release is delayed, wait for the initial Federal Reserve release. Do not use total industrial production, capacity utilization, mining, utilities, market-group indexes, year-over-year changes, annual-revision tables, or later revisions. If Federal Reserve tables show a value rounded to one decimal place, use that rounded published value. Source context at creation: the Federal Reserve release-date page lists June 15, 2026 for G.17, and the April 2026 G.17 release reported total industrial production +0.7% MoM and manufacturing output +0.6% MoM. Primary sources: - https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g17/default.htm - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/release_dates.htm - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/