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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ35
Jun 10
60%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for May 2026 reports that headline CPI rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Use the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from April 2026 to May 2026 in the first BLS May 2026 CPI release. Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower. Do not use the core CPI series, year-over-year CPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the May 2026 figure unless there is no BLS May 2026 CPI release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"all_items_sa_mom_april_2026": 0.6, "all_items_sa_mom_march_2026": 0.9, "all_items_yoy_april_2026": 3.8, "core_sa_mom_april_2026": 0.4, "may_2026_release_note": "BLS April CPI PDF says May 2026 CPI is scheduled for 2026-06-10 at 08:30 ET.", "release": "Consumer Price Index - April 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U percent change from April 2026 to May 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["gydnZOSy02 asks about May 2026 core CPI at least 0.4% MoM, not headline all-items CPI at least 0.3%.", "AcSn2zLOLL asks about May 2026 year-over-year inflation at least 3.0%, not month-over-month headline CPI.", "Resolved April 2026 CPI markets are prior-month markets and not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Official BLS CPI schedule lists May 2026 CPI at 08:30 ET on 2026-06-10; BLS June 2026 list view independently lists Consumer Price Index for May 2026 at the same time.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for May 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0", "source_access_note": "BLS HTML/PDF pages are official resolver surfaces. Direct BLS HTML and public API fetches returned 403/disconnect/timeout from this host during creation, so the receipt records browser-verified official BLS schedule/PDF context instead of depending on a live BLS API call."}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS CPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - BLS June 2026 schedule list: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/06_sched_list.htm - BLS CPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - BLS April 2026 CPI PDF snapshot: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf?pubDate=20250706 - Related core-CPI market: https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-may-2026-core-cpi-rise-at-leas

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