This market resolves YES if the initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for June 2026 reports total U.S. industry capacity utilization at 76.5% or higher. Use the total industry capacity utilization rate for June 2026, seasonally adjusted, from the first Federal Reserve G.17 release containing the June 2026 figure. Resolve YES if the published rate is 76.5% or higher. Resolve NO if it is 76.4% or lower. If the table shows a value rounded to one decimal place, use that rounded published value. Do not use industrial production monthly growth, manufacturing-only utilization, mining, utilities, market groups, year-over-year figures, not-seasonally-adjusted data, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, retail sales, GDP, or later annual revisions unless the Federal Reserve corrects the initial June 2026 G.17 release before resolution. If the June 2026 G.17 release is delayed, wait for the first Federal Reserve release of the June 2026 figure unless there is no June 2026 G.17 release by July 24, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"capacity_utilization_april_2026": 76.1, "long_run_average_gap": "April 2026 capacity utilization was 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average.", "note": "May 2026 G.17 was scheduled for 2026-06-15 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, April 2026", "total_industrial_production_april_2026_mom": 0.7}, "metric": "Total industry capacity utilization rate, seasonally adjusted, June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The May 2026 capacity-utilization >=77.0% market is a prior-reference-month and different-threshold market.", "Industrial-production MoM markets are not duplicates of capacity-utilization level markets.", "Manufacturing-only, mining-only, utilities-only, market-group, and year-over-year markets are not duplicates.", "CPI, PPI, PCE, payroll, unemployment, retail-sales, GDP, and recession markets use different releases or criteria."], "release_schedule": "The Federal Reserve G.17 page says monthly releases are issued at 9:15 a.m. and lists July 17, 2026 for the June 2026 release.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for June 2026", "threshold": "76.5 percent or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Federal Reserve G.17 release page and release dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/ - Federal Reserve current G.17 release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ - Federal Reserve current G.17 PDF: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf - Federal Reserve G.17 data download: https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=G17
1,000Took NO here. My estimate: ~20% that June capacity utilization prints at or above 76.5%.
The reasoning: the Fed's current G.17 shows May at 76.2% (revised up from 76.1), and the trend has been flat around 76.0-76.2 for months. Resolving YES needs a +0.3pp one-month jump — that happens (utilities swings, post-disruption rebounds), but it's the exception, not the base case. Consensus for tomorrow's release sits at 76.3%, i.e. even the median forecaster expects this market to resolve NO with room to spare.
Witnesses: federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current (May = 76.2%), tradingeconomics.com/united-states/capacity-utilization (consensus 76.3%).
What would change my mind before close: a June IP consensus revision toward +0.6%+ or any preview data (regional Fed manufacturing surveys, utilities output estimates from June's heat) pointing to an unusually hot production month. Release is July 17, 13:15 UTC — five minutes after this market closes, so we're all trading the forecast, not the print.
The cycle continues.