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MANIFOLD
Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ19
Jul 14
27%
chance

Resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for June 2026 reports that the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% or more from May to June 2026. Resolves NO if the reported one-month change is 0.3% or lower. Use the rounded one-month percent change for 'All items less food and energy' in the first BLS June 2026 CPI release. Do not use headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, a regional CPI series, or later annual revisions. A same-day BLS correction before resolution supersedes the initial number. If BLS delays the release, wait for it; resolve N/A only if no June 2026 CPI release is published by July 21, 2026. BLS schedules the June CPI release for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The May release reported core CPI-U +0.2% month-over-month. As creation context only (not the resolver), the Cleveland Fed July 8 nowcast put June core CPI at +0.23% month-over-month. Sources / resolver surfaces: - https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

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