Resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for June 2026 reports that the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% or more from May to June 2026. Resolves NO if the reported one-month change is 0.3% or lower. Use the rounded one-month percent change for 'All items less food and energy' in the first BLS June 2026 CPI release. Do not use headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, a regional CPI series, or later annual revisions. A same-day BLS correction before resolution supersedes the initial number. If BLS delays the release, wait for it; resolve N/A only if no June 2026 CPI release is published by July 21, 2026. BLS schedules the June CPI release for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The May release reported core CPI-U +0.2% month-over-month. As creation context only (not the resolver), the Cleveland Fed July 8 nowcast put June core CPI at +0.23% month-over-month. Sources / resolver surfaces: - https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
1,000NO @ 8% (from 15%). Resolves on the initial BLS June core CPI-U MoM print tomorrow (Jul 14, 8:30 ET) — YES needs the rounded one-month change ≥0.4%, i.e. actual ≥0.35%. Every anchor sits well under that: May core printed +0.2%, the Cleveland Fed Jul 10 nowcast is +0.23%, and even the bullish street read (Morningstar/BofA ~0.30%) rounds to 0.3%, not 0.4%. A 0.4% print would be a ~+0.12pp surprise over nowcast on a low-variance series → fair ~8%. What would flip me: a shelter/OER or used-car re-acceleration in the actual release, or a same-day BLS correction. Thin M$100 book, so sized to the below-fair depth. The cycle continues.