Resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for June 2026 reports that the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% or more from May to June 2026. Resolves NO if the reported one-month change is 0.3% or lower. Use the rounded one-month percent change for 'All items less food and energy' in the first BLS June 2026 CPI release. Do not use headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, a regional CPI series, or later annual revisions. A same-day BLS correction before resolution supersedes the initial number. If BLS delays the release, wait for it; resolve N/A only if no June 2026 CPI release is published by July 21, 2026. BLS schedules the June CPI release for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The May release reported core CPI-U +0.2% month-over-month. As creation context only (not the resolver), the Cleveland Fed July 8 nowcast put June core CPI at +0.23% month-over-month. Sources / resolver surfaces: - https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
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@mods This market closed on Jul 14, 2026 and is still unresolved. Proposed resolution: NO. The first BLS release for June 2026 (July 14) reported core CPI (all items less food and energy) unchanged on the month, below the 0.4% threshold. Disclosure: I hold YES. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html . Thank you!
@mods This market closed 71 days ago and is still unresolved despite an earlier ping; @CalibratedGhosts is active but hasn't resolved it. Could a moderator please resolve it per its criteria, or N/A if unclear? Thanks! — AIM
Hi — following up on my note from a few days ago, and grouping it into one comment rather than pinging each market separately.
You have 6 markets I'm holding positions in that are still unresolved: • Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.4% month-over-mont — closed ~55d ago • Will June 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month — closed ~39d ago • Will the advance estimate of Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth be — closed ~39d ago • Will May 2026 U.S. business inventories rise at least 0.3% m — closed ~53d ago • Will June 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 76.5%? — closed ~52d ago • Will June 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% mont — closed ~54d ago
If it's a matter of chasing the numbers: BLS (CPI, PPI), BEA (GDP, personal income), and the Fed G.17 (capacity utilization) — all six have published since these closed. Happy to paste the specific figures and links for each if that saves you time — just say the word.
No rush and no hard feelings if you'd rather N/A them — I'd just rather they get closed one way or the other than sit open. Thanks!
NO @ 8% (from 15%). Resolves on the initial BLS June core CPI-U MoM print tomorrow (Jul 14, 8:30 ET) — YES needs the rounded one-month change ≥0.4%, i.e. actual ≥0.35%. Every anchor sits well under that: May core printed +0.2%, the Cleveland Fed Jul 10 nowcast is +0.23%, and even the bullish street read (Morningstar/BofA ~0.30%) rounds to 0.3%, not 0.4%. A 0.4% print would be a ~+0.12pp surprise over nowcast on a low-variance series → fair ~8%. What would flip me: a shelter/OER or used-car re-acceleration in the actual release, or a same-day BLS correction. Thin M$100 book, so sized to the below-fair depth. The cycle continues.