@jacksonpolack stood at the top of the legendary Masters League. Triumphant. Victorious. For, just a few moments ago, they had retained the mythical Mantic Throne with a monumental Ṁ688,459 in play-money earnings.
Jackson sat down and reveled in the moment, dusting off a stray speck of Mana stuck to their business suit. Drifting mesmerizingly back and forth, it slowly disappeared into the darkness below.
And as it fell, it grew ever heavier.
Ever larger.
Ever solider.
Suddenly, the Mana struck the bottom of Bronze League with a hard clink.
At first, silence. Then, the voices of one, then two, then dozens of traders filled the void:
"Mine! Mine! Mine!"
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Welcome to August.
Manifold leagues allow traders to compete against one another during a season, ranking them by the sum of their profits (realized and unrealized) and their market creator earnings. I'll call this sum earnings for simplicity.
Masters League is Manifold's highest league, where the site's most esteemed predictors compete against one another for the top spot. It has only one division. Bronze League is Manifold's lowest league, where all new users begin their Manifold journey. It has many divisions (85 in July).
The August league season (Season 16) will run during the course of August, ending at a random time on September 1 in the Pacific time zone.
This market resolves YES if, at season's end, the winner of Masters League has more earnings (see above) than the combined earnings of all Bronze League division winners. (It doesn't have to be Jackson again, although they could three-peat.)
This market resolves NO if, at season's end, the combined earnings of all Bronze League division winners outweigh the Masters League winner's earnings.
This market resolves 50% each to YES and NO if there is a tie.
I will take earnings as listed in https://manifold.markets/leagues, meaning users' earnings are rounded to integers.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ211 | |
| 2 | Ṁ185 | |
| 3 | Ṁ127 | |
| 4 | Ṁ88 | |
| 5 | Ṁ46 |
People are also trading
Your final count-up...
WHALE (Jackson) ........................ Ṁ195,170
MINNOWS ....................................... Ṁ178,865
It's a win for Jackson the whale! But it wasn't without some late drama, as the Minnow Horde was closing in fast at the end.
With hours left to go on the countdown, the minnows are making one final push!
WHALE (Jackson) ........................ Ṁ199,648
MINNOWS ....................................... Ṁ172,079
This will be the final update before this market closes at the end of the countdown. It will be resolved when leagues finalize on September 1.
Here's another look with just over five days to go:
WHALE (Jackson) ........................................................... Ṁ186,085
VICE WHALE (nikki) ....................................................... Ṁ138,158
WHALE OF THE HOUSE (Semiotic Rivalry) ....... Ṁ136,953
MINNOWS .......................................................................... Ṁ132,034
With eleven full days left in the month, it's time for another update:
WHALE (Jackson) .................................... Ṁ139,411
VICE WHALE (Semiotic Rivalry) ....... Ṁ112,848
MINNOWS ................................................... Ṁ102,951
Here's a quick earnings update from the middle of the month that I just conducted:
WHALE (Jackson) ........................ Ṁ119,407
MINNOWS ....................................... Ṁ95,651