Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market
Basic
20
Ṁ8772027
90%
OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak
85%
He was fired
72%
He leaked non-trivial information
60%
The leak was not in bad faith
50%
The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama
40%
There will be related legal action against him
40%
The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya
39%
The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)
27%
The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI
25%
He was going to quit
8%
The firing meaningfully relates to Q*
I won't trade, and will aim to tighten and clarify criteria as people engage with the market and ask clarifying questions. I'll be somewhat active in curating and culling answers people add.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Central example of good faith: misunderstood a policy, shared information to try help the OpenAI mission, wasn't trying to be secretive about it
Central example of bad faith: in clear violation of OpenAI policy, information shared was to the detriment of OpenAI, took efforts to not get caught, he personally benefited
Related questions
Related questions
Who will still be working at OpenAI in January 2025?
What will happen to OpenAI next year?
Who will invest in OpenAI in 2024?
OpenAI Market Share
44% chance
On how many requests in Altman's 23rd Dec twitter post will OpenAI deliver?
OpenAI Stock
63% chance
Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?
4% chance
Will Sam altman sue openAI?
4% chance
Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?
OpenAI stock
Ṁ302