Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market
Basic
20
Ṁ8772027
90%
OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak
85%
He was fired
72%
He leaked non-trivial information
60%
The leak was not in bad faith
50%
The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama
40%
There will be related legal action against him
40%
The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya
39%
The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)
27%
The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI
25%
He was going to quit
8%
The firing meaningfully relates to Q*
I won't trade, and will aim to tighten and clarify criteria as people engage with the market and ask clarifying questions. I'll be somewhat active in curating and culling answers people add.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Central example of good faith: misunderstood a policy, shared information to try help the OpenAI mission, wasn't trying to be secretive about it
Central example of bad faith: in clear violation of OpenAI policy, information shared was to the detriment of OpenAI, took efforts to not get caught, he personally benefited
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