Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market

Basic

Ṁ877

2027

90%

OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak

85%

He was fired

72%

He leaked non-trivial information

60%

The leak was not in bad faith

50%

The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama

40%

There will be related legal action against him

40%

The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya

39%

The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)

27%

The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI

25%

He was going to quit

The firing meaningfully relates to Q*

I won't trade, and will aim to tighten and clarify criteria as people engage with the market and ask clarifying questions. I'll be somewhat active in curating and culling answers people add.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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What does "The leak was not in bad faith" mean?

@makoyass

Central example of good faith: misunderstood a policy, shared information to try help the OpenAI mission, wasn't trying to be secretive about it

Central example of bad faith: in clear violation of OpenAI policy, information shared was to the detriment of OpenAI, took efforts to not get caught, he personally benefited

Getting pretty close to cancelling my openai subscription and just using anthropic.

https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778538940263452817

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