100% = Undoubtedly helped reduce
50% = Neutral effect in expectation
0% = Undoubtedly worsened
This won't close until at least 2028.
Otherwise, I'll eventually resolve to market when it looks like betting has stagnated or the price has otherwise stabilized. I'll look to have exited any position I have before resolving is on the cards, to avoid COI.
1,000My take:
- Claude 3 Opus is still the most aligned model released yet
- The technique used (Constitutional AI) doesn't seem to have been adopted by anyone else and it isn't clear whether Anthropic has built meaningfully on it since
- Claude 3's release probably accelerated race dynamics. It was the first major GPT-4 competitor and likely increased pressure within OAI to maintain their advantage
Would lean slightly net negative overall, but there wasn't a huge impact as there are other players besides Anthropic who still would have caused a similar race