If Trump Debates Harris, what will be the change in his Manifold win % after one week?
47
1kṀ6609
resolved Sep 18
100%32%
- >4%
4%
+ > 4%
6%
+(1 to 4]%
4%
+(0 to 1]%
9%
-[0 to 1]%
45%
-(1 to 4]%

Based on probabilities immediately before the debate begins and the result polling % after exactly one week. Results will be based upon this market:

US Politics
Politics
Trump
2024 US Presidential Election
Kamala Harris
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@Cadberry what were the respective start and end probabilities?

@Siebe 50% to 45%.

bought Ṁ14 YES

I moved some options a fair bit, from 4% to 12% in one case. If someone disagrees lmk and I'd be down to bet more on some of these before the debate starts

...why is this market not centered at zero?

(At the time I wrote this, 75% of the probability mass was on Trump losing ground in the markets after the debate.)

cause he's gonna lose the debate lol

So? People are expecting him to lose the debate. So e.g. if he loses the debate but only by a little, we should expect the market to move in Trump's favor.

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