If Trump Debates Harris, what will be the change in his Manifold win % after one week?
Basic
47
Ṁ6.6kJan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
+ > 4%
7%
+(1 to 4]%
4%
+(0 to 1]%
12%
-[0 to 1]%
36%
-(1 to 4]%
36%
- >4%
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...why is this market not centered at zero?
(At the time I wrote this, 75% of the probability mass was on Trump losing ground in the markets after the debate.)
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