Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Plus
21
Ṁ31462027
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Defined as effectively an ice-free arctic for any part of the year. Defined as <1MM Km^2 of sea ice in the arctic at any point (per Wikipedia definition)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@jcb Extent. Per wikipedia, "Sea ice extent is defined as the area with at least 15% of sea ice cover; it is more often used as a metric than simple total sea ice area. This metric is used to address uncertainty in distinguishing open sea water from melted water on top of solid ice, which satellite detection methods have difficulty differentiating."
@pat thanks! "<1MM Km^2 of sea ice area at lowest extent" wouldn't have made much sense but it seemed just ambiguous enough to ask
Related questions
Related questions
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
73% chance
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
47% chance
Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030?
10% chance
Will the north pole be ice free by 2030?
13% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
15% chance
Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
75% chance
When will the Antarctic sea ice reach nearly zero before 2100?
25% chance
Will scientists find a continuous, million-year ice core in Antarctica by 2028?
77% chance
Will Greenland be a sovereign state before 2040?
34% chance
Will Earth. have another ice age in the next 50,000 years?
34% chance