Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
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Defined as effectively an ice-free arctic for any part of the year. Defined as <1MM Km^2 of sea ice in the arctic at any point (per Wikipedia definition)

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Does "before summer 2026" include September 2026?

predictedYES

@StevenK Yes

Is the <1MM Km^2 threshold for sea ice extent or sea ice area?

@jcb Extent. Per wikipedia, "Sea ice extent is defined as the area with at least 15% of sea ice cover; it is more often used as a metric than simple total sea ice area. This metric is used to address uncertainty in distinguishing open sea water from melted water on top of solid ice, which satellite detection methods have difficulty differentiating."

@pat thanks! "<1MM Km^2 of sea ice area at lowest extent" wouldn't have made much sense but it seemed just ambiguous enough to ask

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