PAW3: Ballot initiatives/policy advocacy to end factory farming or de-escalate stocking densities by 2050
resolved Jul 27

As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Ballot initiatives/policy advocacy to end factory farming or de-escalate stocking densities by 2050" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention?

Idea overview

This charity idea focuses on utilizing direct democracy channels, such as ballot initiatives and referendums. The aim would be to phase out factory farming and the import of factory-farmed products in regions where such channels exist, drawing inspiration from the Swiss Factory Farm ballot initiative. In areas without direct democracy options, the organization will advocate for government policies to scale down factory farms and reduce stocking densities. The charity is likely to operate in high-income countries with a strong emphasis on animal welfare, aiming for a complete phase out of factory farms by 2050.

Preventive animal welfare

This year our focus is on interventions and policies that prevent future harms done to animals, as opposed to solving current problems. We will be looking for interventions that, as well as having some short run evidence of impact, will prevent future problems, i.e., have the biggest impact on farmed animals in the future, say 35 years from now.

We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.

About the contest

In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected

  • You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.

  • You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.

For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

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predicted YES

Related market:

I am not sure about the exact framing of the current proposals, but I think it is telling that there is a lot of people who are intuitively against slaughterhouses, if you can use tap into this with referendums / ballot initiatives / policy advocates you can potentially:
1. Raise awareness of slaughterhouses,
2. Potentially ban slaughterhouses in some jurisdictions.
3. If 2 is successful: Raise the price of meet significantly.

predicted YES

GPT-4 ranked this as #2