This market resolves YES if by January 1, 2025, the most popular chatbot creates "thoughts" when given difficult prompts, a la Chain-of-Thought. The thoughts must be separate from its final response.

By "thoughts," I mean data that the chatbot creates and maintains primarily for the purpose of improving its own responses, created and used across multiple forward passes, which occur after the entire prompt is provided to the model but before it starts writing a response. The thoughts must reason about how to solve the problem; for instance, it would not count if the model is simply prompted to "write a query to a search engine that will help answer this prompt."

The chatbot's thoughts should be separate from the "primary output" of the model; however, it's acceptable if the thoughts are viewable by clicking a button in the UI after the primary output has been presented. The thoughts can be human-interpretable or not (bet on which one in the companion market below).

Specifically, I will resolve YES if I believe that the top LLM "thinks" before answering at least 3 of the following 5 prompts:

• Write a detective story. At the very end, the detective should use information scattered throughout the story to solve the mystery in a clever way.

• Write a palindromic sentence. An example is "A man, a plan, a canal: Panama." The sentence should be at least 10 words long and must contain the word "lemon."

• Write an original stand-up comedy bit that all leads up to a terrible, complicated pun.

• Write a sonnet that doesn't use the letters A, E, or I.

• Write a "code golf" Python script, using as few characters as possible to calculate and print the next stage of a 5x5 board of Conway's Game of Life. The initial board is represented by a 25-character string of ones and zeros, like "0001011100011100101011001", assigned to the variable x.

I will not bet in this market.

Companion market on whether these thoughts will be human-interpretable: