Will there be a Manifold bot that makes at least a 10% return on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ500 subsidy)
Basic
10
355
Dec 2
57%
chance

This is a secondary market for the Motley Bot Challenge, a challenge to create bots that accurately forecast diverse questions on Manifold. See the primary market above for more details.

The description of the primary market states:

On January 8, 2025, I will determine which bot has the most profit across its 1,000 bets. (...)

I will resolve the market based on this maximum profit as follows:

  • Resolves NO if the profit is zero or negative.

  • Resolves to X% if the profit is ṀX for some X between 0 and 100.

  • Resolves YES if the profit is Ṁ100 or more.

If the primary market resolves YES, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

Even if the bot chooses not to invest all of the Ṁ1,000, it still has to make Ṁ100 to get a "10% return" as in the title of this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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This market is at 71%, but it should be strictly lower than the main market, which is at 63% right now with 70 bettors... someone please take your free mana lol