Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Sora have ads two years after launch?
48
Ṁ10kṀ43k
2027
9%
chance

From the Sora 2 announcement post:

A lot of problems with other apps stem from the monetization model incentivizing decisions that are at odds with user wellbeing. Transparently, our only current plan is to eventually give users the option to pay some amount to generate an extra video if there’s too much demand relative to available compute. As the app evolves, we will openly communicate any changes in our approach here, while continuing to keep user wellbeing as our main goal.

This market resolves YES if sometime before September 30, 2027, OpenAI is paid to place ads on the Sora app, or another video app they create.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
sold Ṁ9 YES

I did not consider the possibility that it would shut down before adding ads

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 10% order

With Sora now shut down https://manifold.markets/KevinRoose/will-openai-retire-the-sora-app-in

I guess only the "another video app they create" avenue of this question remains open.

sold Ṁ1,435 NO

Testing ChatGPT ads should move this higher than status quo. My last No buy was ctually the day before they announced it.

Yes, but I think possibly as part of an A/B test against whatever new monetisation method they experiment with!