MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?
16
Ṁ2kṀ1.6k
2029
34%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if third-party advertising appears in any Anthropic-operated Claude consumer product (claude.ai, official apps) before January 1, 2030. Otherwise "No".

What counts:

  • Sponsored content or paid product placements in Claude's responses

  • Display/banner ads in the Claude interface

  • Affiliate links where Anthropic receives payment

What doesn't count:

  • Brief limited testing

  • Anthropic promoting its own subscriptions or features

  • Ads in third-party apps using Claude's API

  • User-enabled integrations (e.g., shopping plugins)

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