Why would you write your question title like this?

@ChrisMills apparently not a moron

How does this market resolve if the election occurs before 2025?

What if their parties have a tie in seats?

Still hasn't happened yet so fingers crossed, we'll cross that bridge when it comes to it! 👍

@BumKing Might want to start considering this question, re: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/jagmeet-singh-pulls-ndp-out-of-supply-and-confidence-deal-with-trudeau-liberals-1.7024851

@BumKing this is a very bad way to run a market. How are people supposed to trade with confidence when your answer to clarifying questions is "meh idk"?

@treeboar I’m trading with the assumption that mods will agree that the question clearly says “Justin Trudeau” and 2025, and will ask for this to be resolved in favor of “NO” if Trudeau resigns before the election, because that seems like the plain interpretation of what the question is asking.

I’m going to assume the person calling me a moron will be unhappy with this outcome, but we can’t all be literate.

@ChrisMills I never interpreted the question that way lol, I always interpreted it as Pierre winning the election, with the Trudeau being dethroned part meaning losing power in any way due to Pierre's actions. I called you a moron because I thought you were betting on Trudeau winning an election, not on Trudeau resigning

https://chatgpt.com/share/6760bbe6-4f3c-8001-9201-779fdca0b2ac

@BumKing does Trudeau need to be dethroned in general, or does he need to lose the election specifically?

@PeterNjeim The title of the market tells us that "being dethroned in general" would not be sufficient, because it clearly specifies, "In the Canadian Election, in 2025, by Pierre Poilievre".

In my interpretation, which involves "reading the words in the title", this is not satisfied if:

• An election was held in 2024, in which Pierre Poilievre defeats Trudeau (no longer possible, but the basis for earlier wagering by me)

• Justin Trudeau is not the leader by 2025, or resigns the leadership before an election, meaning he would not have been dethroned by Pierre Poilievre

• Justin Trudeau loses an election to someone other than Pierre Poilievre

• etc.

The refusal of the market maker to clarify (but the expressed openness to interpretation before he disappeared) makes me think the words in the title should probably tell us the conditions of the wager, because there's nothing else to go on, though the fact that "dethroned" is a pretty flowery word could make a literalistic interpretation of the title impossible to satisfy, so shrug

@ChrisMills I agree with you for the most part, especially at the end where you admit that "dethrone" is ambiguous, as in my opinion one can be dethroned without losing an election, and the election result becomes relevant because Pierre needs to win it for this to resolve Yes. Here's a continuation of my discussion with ChatGPT:

https://chatgpt.com/share/6760bbe6-4f3c-8001-9201-779fdca0b2ac

@treeboar Don't worry all will reveal itself in time.

@BumKing I will get the mods involved if you don't explain how this will resolve

Trudeau just separated from his wife, seems to be bad news for his reelection campaign

338Canada has the probability of the CPC winning the next election at 90% as of yesterday's update (I was confused at the sudden YES spike, so I decided to look it up - the reason is that 338Canada had a similar spike, from about 55% to 90%.) This is probably the result of a big swing in polls last week, probably as a result of Trudeau's cabinet shakeup.