As of this writing, the current (2023) Doomsday Clock from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is set to 90 seconds to midnight: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ . The closer the Doomsday Clock is to midnight, the closer the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists thinks that humanity is to existential risk or global catastrophe (such as nuclear war, extreme climate change, biological threats, etc).

This market will resolve YES if by March 2024, the Bulletin publishes an announcement that they have moved the Doomsday Clock to strictly less than 90 seconds to midnight. Otherwise (including if the clock stays at 90 seconds), the market will resolve to NO.

This market is agnostic to the reasons as to why the Bulletin decides to move or not move the Doomsday Clock. For example, this market is not conditional on the Bulletin moving the Clock due to increases/decreases from risk due to AI (or other possible risks like climate change, nuclear war, etc.)