Will Israel announce a ceasefire before Thanksgiving 2023?
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1.8kṀ36k
resolved Nov 22
Resolved
YES

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predictedNO

A ceasefire has not technically been approved. It remains subject to additional review and while it is highly likely that a cease fire will be declared we are not quite there yet.

predictedNO

@Bruce54df the ceasefire appears to be contingent on the release of hostages. Until the hostages are released I don’t think this can be resolved.

predictedYES

@CS10K It was announced. That’s all it takes to resolve.

@Bruce54df https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-11-21-23 resolves Yes based on the comments below! 4-day ceasefire voted in favor by the "significant majority" of the cabinet.

@Panfilo Multiple outlets using the word "ceasefire" (here's Axios)

predictedYES

@Panfilo Here's AJ

predictedNO

I wonder if they’ll avoid using the word “ceasefire” in order to deny that this was the result of pressure and to emphasize that the conflict is ongoing. Just a “pause to allow hostage exchange” or something.

predictedYES

If they announce today that the war council has agreed to a ceasefire, will that be enough to solve the market?

predictedYES

@Emanuele98 Yes that would be enough.

24 hour turnaround time likely on the hostage list

What's a ceasefire? Does a 4 day pause count?

@DanMan314 That would qualify.

predictedNO

@Bruce54df Does it need to last for its intended duration or just be announced by Israel?

predictedYES

@Panfilo The ceasefire can be temporary in nature and might fall apart quickly. The question resolves Yes when Israel announces that it has agreed to do it.

Which country's thanksgiving?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanksgiving (see sidebar)

predictedYES

@CarineBelleF US Thanksgiving, November 23, 2023

predictedNO

@Bruce54df Would the deadline be sundown on Wednesday in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem or midnight Israeli time, or midnight GMT or New York time? It seems unlikely but possible that the announcement could come in those hours.

predictedYES

@DanPowell Deadline is 12am Thursday NewYork time where Thanksgiving is celebrated.

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