Will Israel announce a ceasefire before Thanksgiving 2023?
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resolved Nov 22
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YES

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CS10K avatar
CS10Kpredicted NO

A ceasefire has not technically been approved. It remains subject to additional review and while it is highly likely that a cease fire will be declared we are not quite there yet.

CS10K avatar
CS10Kpredicted NO

@Bruce54df the ceasefire appears to be contingent on the release of hostages. Until the hostages are released I don’t think this can be resolved.

Bruce54df avatar
Brucepredicted YES

@CS10K It was announced. That’s all it takes to resolve.

Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ500 of YES

@Bruce54df https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-11-21-23 resolves Yes based on the comments below! 4-day ceasefire voted in favor by the "significant majority" of the cabinet.

Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ1 of YES

@Panfilo Multiple outlets using the word "ceasefire" (here's Axios)

Panfilo avatar
Panfilopredicted YES

@Panfilo Here's AJ

Panfilo avatar
Panfilopredicted NO

I wonder if they’ll avoid using the word “ceasefire” in order to deny that this was the result of pressure and to emphasize that the conflict is ongoing. Just a “pause to allow hostage exchange” or something.

Emanuele676 avatar
Emanuelepredicted YES

If they announce today that the war council has agreed to a ceasefire, will that be enough to solve the market?

Bruce54df avatar
Brucepredicted YES

@Emanuele98 Yes that would be enough.

Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ66 of NO

24 hour turnaround time likely on the hostage list

DanMan314 avatar
Dan

What's a ceasefire? Does a 4 day pause count?

Bruce54df avatar
Bruce

@DanMan314 That would qualify.

Panfilo avatar
Panfilopredicted NO

@Bruce54df Does it need to last for its intended duration or just be announced by Israel?

Bruce54df avatar
Brucepredicted YES

@Panfilo The ceasefire can be temporary in nature and might fall apart quickly. The question resolves Yes when Israel announces that it has agreed to do it.

CarineBelleF avatar
Carine-Belle F

Which country's thanksgiving?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanksgiving (see sidebar)

Bruce54df avatar
Brucepredicted YES

@CarineBelleF US Thanksgiving, November 23, 2023

DanPowell avatar
Dan Powellpredicted NO

@Bruce54df Would the deadline be sundown on Wednesday in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem or midnight Israeli time, or midnight GMT or New York time? It seems unlikely but possible that the announcement could come in those hours.

Bruce54df avatar
Brucepredicted YES

@DanPowell Deadline is 12am Thursday NewYork time where Thanksgiving is celebrated.