Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Luis Roberto Barroso announced his retirement on October 10, 2025, creating a vacancy for President Lula to fill.
The nomination process requires the President to submit a name to the Senate for approval by absolute majority vote.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the Brazilian Senate confirms President Lula’s nominee for the Supreme Federal Court (STF) by November 30, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO. Resolution will be based on official Senate records or official Supreme Court announcements
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O presidente do Senado, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), anunciou nesta terça-feira (25) que a indicação de Jorge Messias para ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) será analisada na Comissão de Constituição e Justiça (CCJ) e votada no plenário da Casa no mesmo dia, em 10 de dezembro. https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2025/11/26/senado-marca-sabatina-de-messias-veja-quanto-tempo-cada-indicado-para-o-stf-teve-que-esperar-para-ser-aprovado.ghtml