Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)
(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)
next test expected Nov 18
"Starship’s upper stage will fly the same suborbital trajectory as the previous flight test"
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-6
tempted to conclude Yes on the basis of this last flight where they could have done orbits, but I was trying to be precise and that's not precisely what this question is. maybe next time they'll actually do a few orbits just to hang out in space a few hours and prove they can come back from that. [shrug]
@BrianOlson imo the conditions are pretty clear and this flight doesn't fulfill them
> (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)
> (if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)
Not that I mind a Yes resolution but it wouldn't be correct right now imo
Further, if the planned trajectory for this flight were to fulfil the criteria for this market, then so would have the planned trajectory for the first flight, which did not reach its target trajectory. So if you were going to resolve YES on this flight, you would have to instead resolve NO on the first flight (of course, you should do neither).
May wish to extend the market close date at least until end of June @BrianOlson. Next near-orbital flight expected probably late May, so probably not going to see a full-orbit attempt for at least a month after that.
@BrianOlson Perhaps even less than 50% of an orbit. Hmm perhaps is less than 50% way around Earth anyway.
This notes that the Monday 4/17 test is not planning on orbit, but a highly elliptical hop up to 235km and back down at around 3/4 of a turn around the earth into the Pacific
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/green-light-go-spacex-receives-a-launch-license-from-the-faa-for-starship/
@BrianOlson So if that is accurate (virtually certain that it is), I take it this market stays open
@Mqrius Yes, but it doesn't depend on the orbital parameters - the market description defines orbit as completing one pass around the earth at an altitude of >100km. We know they weren't intending that, and even if they were on an orbital trajectory with high perigee and subsequently did a deorbit burn to re-enter near Hawaii, they would still not count as being in orbit for the purposes of this market.
So when looking at that they intend, we're looking only at whether they intend to go around the earth at least once, which is a bit easier than figuring out what orbital parameters they were aiming for!