Background
Short-form video platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels are currently subject to general content regulations but lack specific short-form video content regulations. The UK's Online Harms Act, EU's Digital Services Act (DSA), and ongoing US discussions about TikTok regulation demonstrate increasing regulatory attention in this space.
Current regulations focus on:
Protection of minors
Prevention of harmful content
Data privacy
Platform accountability
Content moderation transparency
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the year when any of these jurisdictions (UK, EU, or US, or any of the States/countries therein) implements specific regulations targeting short-form video content. To qualify as a resolution:
The regulation must be specifically designed for or explicitly include short-form video content (videos typically under 3 minutes)
The regulation must be formally enacted into law (not just proposed or under discussion)
The regulation must include at least one of the following:
Specific content moderation requirements for short-form videos
Age verification requirements
Content labeling requirements
Algorithmic transparency requirements specific to short-form video recommendation systems
A ban or distribution limit placed on short form content (a ban on one platform specifically does not count)
The market will resolve to "Later/never" if no qualifying regulation is enacted by December 31, 2045.
Considerations
Current regulations like the EU's DSA and UK's Online Harms Act, while applicable to short-form video platforms, are general digital content regulations and do not qualify for resolution
Regulations targeting specific platforms (e.g., TikTok bans) without addressing short-form video content broadly will not qualify for resolution
The rapid evolution of technology and social media platforms may accelerate or influence regulatory timelines
Changes in political leadership or major platform-related incidents could significantly impact regulatory priorities and timelines
1,000