https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle
i will attempt to resolve this fairly based on the market graph and comments on @bens market, but please provide input if you feel i am incorrect
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@Eliza it seems like this might resolve no as the probability has barely dropped below 50%. everyone is being way more calm about this than i thought they would be.
@BooLightning I think the majority of the action was from net No holders or neutral parties. There was some moving by a few Yes holders but most of those seem to be ending the day with more Yes than they started.
At some point, the perceived probability of solving the puzzle, given a 100% drop rate of daily hints, will drop beneath 50%. I think the wall should crumble at some point unless somebody snipes the answer.
So, with that said, are we measuring the 50% wall as a binary quantitative state? Or are we measuring a qualitative state?
@Quroe it asks about yes holders, not people who don't even own Yes who are too afraid to buy it at market rates.