Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will yes holders on "Will Manifold solve my puzzle?" realize they miscalculated and panic before christmas?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ158
resolved Dec 23
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle

i will attempt to resolve this fairly based on the market graph and comments on @bens market, but please provide input if you feel i am incorrect

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ73
2Ṁ6
3Ṁ2
Sort by:

I am currently a Yes holder and I pledge that anything I do in the market will not qualify as "panicking".

@Eliza it seems like this might resolve no as the probability has barely dropped below 50%. everyone is being way more calm about this than i thought they would be.

it looks like there may have been a small panic on December 14th, but I would say most people are still holding strong. It was probably just the wind.

@BooLightning I think the majority of the action was from net No holders or neutral parties. There was some moving by a few Yes holders but most of those seem to be ending the day with more Yes than they started.

At some point, the perceived probability of solving the puzzle, given a 100% drop rate of daily hints, will drop beneath 50%. I think the wall should crumble at some point unless somebody snipes the answer.

So, with that said, are we measuring the 50% wall as a binary quantitative state? Or are we measuring a qualitative state?

@Quroe it asks about yes holders, not people who don't even own Yes who are too afraid to buy it at market rates.

@Eliza Oooh! Good catch.

@Quroe almost everyone who has participated in a 50% Yes wall has done so while holding No shares.