Will yes holders on "Will Manifold solve my puzzle?" realize they miscalculated and panic before christmas? | Manifold

Will yes holders on "Will Manifold solve my puzzle?" realize they miscalculated and panic before christmas?

4

100Ṁ55

Dec 31

40%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle

i will attempt to resolve this fairly based on the market graph and comments on @bens market, but please provide input if you feel i am incorrect

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At some point, the perceived probability of solving the puzzle, given a 100% drop rate of daily hints, will drop beneath 50%. I think the wall should crumble at some point unless somebody snipes the answer.

So, with that said, are we measuring the 50% wall as a binary quantitative state? Or are we measuring a qualitative state?

@Quroe it asks about yes holders, not people who don't even own Yes who are too afraid to buy it at market rates.

@Eliza Oooh! Good catch.

@Quroe almost everyone who has participated in a 50% Yes wall has done so while holding No shares.

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Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

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This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2025, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES.

At the end of Boxing Day 2027 (Dec 26) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030?

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Related questions

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

Will Manifold solve Ben's puzzle?

This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2025, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES.

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Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030?

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