Will there be a lake in the Qattara Depression by 2050?
1
70Ṁ52051
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is at least 10,000 km^2 region of water in the Qattara Depression any time between now and the close date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
they really should try and do this! betting YES because i think this would be a cool project and not because i think anyone will actually build it.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030?
15% chance
Will we see the construction of a city underwater by 2050?
22% chance
Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?
54% chance
Will we have a floating city before 2050?
14% chance
Will the water level in Lake Mead descend below 895 feet, cutting Las Vegas off from water, by the end of 2030?
1% chance
Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?
50% chance
Will a crossing of the Gulf of Aqaba between the Egypt and Saudi Arabia have started construction by 2035?
19% chance
Will Israel Exist as a country in 2060?
91% chance
Will a city like this exist by 2050?
3% chance
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
73% chance