Will the water level in Lake Mead descend below 895 feet, cutting Las Vegas off from water, by the end of 2030?
5
35
110
2031
50%
chance

At the time of posting, Lake Mead's water level is 1065 feet, and the lake is 34% full.

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@IsaacMathes you'll want to extend the market's close date to 2030! Currently it closes at the end of 2023.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington Thanks for pointing that out! Made the change.

If the water level rises again, how does this resolve? Are we betting on a drought between now and then or a permanent transformation?

predicts YES

@josharian The question resolves YES if, at any point in time between now and the end of 2030, Lake Mead's water level drops below 895 feet.

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