Will the mean answers get a better Brier score than the median answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?
11
116
190
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

Manifold has a group for questions from the 2023 ACX contest. Scott has released the answers of blind mode participants in this post. Once all markets in the linked group have resolved, this market will resolve according to whether the mean answers have a lower (better) Brier score than the median answers from the data in the linked post.

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predicted NO

Final Brier scores, (ignoring the N/A resolution) were:

0.172 for the blind mode mean

0.161 for the blind mode median

0.167 for Manifold

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I don't follow the resolution criteria here. What mean are you referring to - Manifold prediction averaged over time?

@jack Sorry, the manifold predictions don't factor into this one at all - it's the blind mode mean vs blind mode median.

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