Will the mean answers get a better Brier score than the median answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?

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Manifold has a group for questions from the 2023 ACX contest. Scott has released the answers of blind mode participants in this post. Once all markets in the linked group have resolved, this market will resolve according to whether the mean answers have a lower (better) Brier score than the median answers from the data in the linked post.

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@jack Sorry, the manifold predictions don't factor into this one at all - it's the blind mode mean vs blind mode median.

## Related questions

## Related questions

Which answer will end with a higher probability?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?

Will the aggregated blind mode predictions outperform aggregated full mode predictions in the 2023 ACX prediction contest?

14% chance

Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)

45% chance

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18% chance

Will I be able to predict my partner better than she can predict me? (M$50 bounty for good questions.)

50% chance

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

17% chance

Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024?

20% chance

[ACX 2024] Will an AI win a (highest division) coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?

6% chance