Will Starship put a payload into orbit in 2023?
43
115
830
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if a SpaceX is paid to launch something into orbit, and it successfully does this with Starship.

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predicted NO

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1740721600805441661
Busy Starbase! The road is closed. Orbital Launch Site is preparing for Booster 10 Static Fire. We'll be live commentary for that.
29 Dec 2023

After static fire:
Close mishap investigation, complete any required remediations and documentation, get launch licence, first full stack, install FTS, get road closure, marine NGA, NOTAMs & TFRs, and almost certainly lots more not mentioned above all happening in time for launch 31 December? Just no way all that is going to happen in 3 days let alone when 2 are on a holiday weekend.

Think it can be resolved no. @BoltonBailey

predicted NO

fwiw the current FCC filing for IFT3 indicates that they want to go to orbit, so they might try popping a Starlink at that time too. But it's still early times.

bought Ṁ200 of NO
bought Ṁ2 of NO

Changed my mind on this. S24, S25, and S26 all can't put any payload into orbit; 24 and 25 have a payload slot welded closed, S26 doesn't have any at all. It's possible that they'll fly other ships than those, but the chance of that becomes a bit less.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

In yesterday's twitter spaces Elon said that he'd like to fly a ship where they can test reentry, so they're considering flying S28 next, but the decision has not been made. He also said that he still expects to fly 3 or 4 ships this year.

IIRC S28 has a payload slot, so those are signals that would point to Yes.

On the other hand, even if they fly S28, he said they'll probably fly it on the same almost-orbital trajectory as last attempt, so that wouldn't make it likely that they put something into orbit.

Does a Starlink payload count? It's a functional payload but the paying party is SpaceX themselves.

@Mqrius Yes, Starlink should count.