Will Starship put a payload into orbit in 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if a SpaceX is paid to launch something into orbit, and it successfully does this with Starship.

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predictedNO

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1740721600805441661
Busy Starbase! The road is closed. Orbital Launch Site is preparing for Booster 10 Static Fire. We'll be live commentary for that.
29 Dec 2023

After static fire:
Close mishap investigation, complete any required remediations and documentation, get launch licence, first full stack, install FTS, get road closure, marine NGA, NOTAMs & TFRs, and almost certainly lots more not mentioned above all happening in time for launch 31 December? Just no way all that is going to happen in 3 days let alone when 2 are on a holiday weekend.

Think it can be resolved no. @BoltonBailey

predictedNO

fwiw the current FCC filing for IFT3 indicates that they want to go to orbit, so they might try popping a Starlink at that time too. But it's still early times.

Changed my mind on this. S24, S25, and S26 all can't put any payload into orbit; 24 and 25 have a payload slot welded closed, S26 doesn't have any at all. It's possible that they'll fly other ships than those, but the chance of that becomes a bit less.

In yesterday's twitter spaces Elon said that he'd like to fly a ship where they can test reentry, so they're considering flying S28 next, but the decision has not been made. He also said that he still expects to fly 3 or 4 ships this year.

IIRC S28 has a payload slot, so those are signals that would point to Yes.

On the other hand, even if they fly S28, he said they'll probably fly it on the same almost-orbital trajectory as last attempt, so that wouldn't make it likely that they put something into orbit.

Does a Starlink payload count? It's a functional payload but the paying party is SpaceX themselves.

@Mqrius Yes, Starlink should count.

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