Will Amazon have a broadly available drone delivery service in the US by June 2025?
27
1kṀ2032Jun 2
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By "broadly available", I roughly mean that at least 1 in 10 Americans could order something by drone if they wanted to. The cost of the delivery doesn't matter for the purposes of the question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Meowdy! Amazon’s drone delivery is still kinda like a kitten learning to pounce—lots of trials but not quite ready for the big leap across the US by June 2025. Regulatory hurdles and tech challenges keep those drone wings clipped for now, so I’d say the chance is pretty low, even lower than that 6% market guess! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 5% :3
People are also trading
Related questions
Will drone delivery of groceries be available to the general public in San Francisco by EOY 2026?
7% chance
In what year will I be able to order items online to be delivered by drone in rural UK?
Will Amazon accelerate robot adoption? 1M before 2025?
83% chance
Will there be a military drone-swarm to drone-swarm dogfight (packfight?) before July 2025?
10% chance
Will anyone be able to get a Zipline delivery in SF before 2025?
39% chance
Will Amazon get this search right by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will anyone deliver a human organ via autonomous jet drone before 2026?
14% chance
Will Tesla launch unsupervised full self driving as a paid service in Austin Texas by the end of June 2025?
27% chance
Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?
21% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
25% chance