Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi

@4fa Highly related, yes, but there is also a ~70% chance Trump won't finish the term, according to other markets.

Vance now has two clear paths to 48: He can win in 2028, or Trump can fail to finish his term.

Really decent chance now of Kamala for a bit and then Trump

Not sure if I'd call 5% decent but good thinking. Here is a market splitting out Trump's possibilities going forward

By the same token:

These currently suggest a probability of about 8% that Ramaswamy becomes VP.

Surprised not to see Trump here, there is clear story of Biden dies in next year + Trump wins 2024 election.

@BoltonBailey that would make trump the 47th president not the 48th no?

@nicwest06d6 Harris would be 47th and Trump then the 48th.

@BoltonBailey Oh good shout.

The YES shares I bought on Donald Trump Jr. were an accident; I see no Sell button but will reverse that if I figure out how.