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MANIFOLD
Who will be the 48th president of the United States?
109
Ṁ7.3kṀ22k
2028
31%
J. D. Vance
27%
Other
12%
Gavin Newsom
11%
Marco Rubio
4%
Kamala Harris
3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
3%
Donald Trump Jr.
2%
Josh Shapiro
1.9%
Ron DeSantis
1.7%
Pete Buttigieg
1.4%
Donald Trump

Uses the standard counting system - presidents in nonconsecutive terms get two numbers.

At the time of market creation, Joe Biden was the 46th president.

Currently, Donald Trump is the 47th president (having previously been the 45th).

The president after Trump will therefore be the 48th.

Market context
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Future US Presidents
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opened a Ṁ72 NO at 32% order

Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi

@4fa Highly related, yes, but there is also a ~70% chance Trump won't finish the term, according to other markets.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Vance now has two clear paths to 48: He can win in 2028, or Trump can fail to finish his term.

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 5% order

Really decent chance now of Kamala for a bit and then Trump

Not sure if I'd call 5% decent but good thinking. Here is a market splitting out Trump's possibilities going forward

By the same token:

These currently suggest a probability of about 8% that Ramaswamy becomes VP.

Surprised not to see Trump here, there is clear story of Biden dies in next year + Trump wins 2024 election.

@BoltonBailey that would make trump the 47th president not the 48th no?

@nicwest06d6 Harris would be 47th and Trump then the 48th.

@BoltonBailey Oh good shout.

The YES shares I bought on Donald Trump Jr. were an accident; I see no Sell button but will reverse that if I figure out how.

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