Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to the person who becomes Prime Minister after Justin Trudeau, regardless of whether it is through resignation or a new election.
1,000
3.00Why is Other so much higher in this market than the following? https://manifold.markets/cash/who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the-ff66e5c8c460
@IC IDK, it's probably just mispriced. Perhaps people think Trudeau won't end up stepping down? But then seems like Polievre should be much more likely here.
@IC there is also now a discrepancy with these two markets between who is the frontrunner, Carney or Freeland.
@BoltonBailey Justin Trudeau is set to resign before an election and be replaced by another Liberal as PM. That PM would count as a YES for this question, correct?
@cash Yes, this market says nothing about the PM having to come about as a result of a new election. If Trudeau resigns and a new person becomes Prime Minister, this market will resolve to that person.
